by Imran H. Khan

It seems that it is an open season these days by self proclaimed pundits to make predictions about the coming year.  So I thought why not join the fray.  On September 28th of 2010 I had written to a friend the following words  “I think if you have some money just buy some broad based stock and sell it in Jan and you are guaranteed to make a killing. It is a combination of strong holiday retail sales and election year.”  As predicted the Dow did precisely as I had predicted. See the chart below..

Had my friend followed my prediction he could have made an easy appreciation of 7.69% on his investment in just three months.  In general the stock market historically does well in the last three quarters as most of the retail sale happens around the Christmas season. This year was further reinforced because of the election year and what that meant was that the politicians would postpone longer term pain for shorter term gain. Now if you are to follow my earlier prediction that to realize this profit you should now sell what you were advised to buy in September.

So here are my three predictions for 2011.

US Economy

I think US economy will grow much stronger that what most pundits think. We will experience the bottom of the real estate market pains and there will be moderate growth in jobs. The stock market will do really well driven by manufacturing and energy sectors primarily fueled by weaker dollar and stronger exports. The Obama administration has not been given the due credit for making the timely investments and monetary changes to bring back the US economy from years of economic reckless behavior. Having both house and senate controlled by the democrats also played a role in the administration’s ability to act swiftly.

SMART Phones becoming Mainstream

There will be explosive growth of SMART phones, as many of them will break the $100 barrier without even a contract.  This when coupled with mushrooming Android and Window 7 applications will enable most of what is being done with computers to now be able to get done ubiquitously with cell phones. The other trend that will assist this is that heavy lifting will get done increasingly with cloud computing, so the smart cell phone will not have to carry the data and number crunching burden to handle some of the heavier duty applications.

Football

Here I am going to go on the limb and predict that Tom Brady will lead Patriots to a super bowl victory.

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Comments

2 Responses to “Predictions for 2011”

  1. izaz haque on January 3rd, 2011 12:30 am

    Right on, Imran! Nice job on the stock market prediction.

    I agree with most of your predictions (i cannot see the US entering another declared war, though).

    I can put in a few on the whole smartphone and on-line trends:

    mobile wallet should go mainstream

    wireless e-health applications will catch on

    more multiscreen experiences (ie watching TV on multiple devices, and vice versa, more IPTV and web experience on your TV)

    In terms of hot trends, i would add Neuroscience to your list. That seems to be an intriguing area of large public interest. It will probably produce a few surprises.

    You didn’t say anything about India or China shaking up the world. Perhaps a thought or two? China seems to be on a linear path towards future glory, India’s is more murky. Will China put a man on the moon?

    And what about Pakistan? Will democracy survive in a perpetual minority ruling party environment?

    And i think one can safely predict: there will be some major event or trend that no one predicted.

    [Reply]

  2. Taimur on January 17th, 2011 10:00 pm

    Meh! Wrong. Wrong.

    Time has already proven prediction #3 incorrect.
    And time will slowly show that your prediction about SMART phones (which on a general level is obvious) will be swayed more towards iPhones and Apple’s divine genius.
    As for the economy, I couldn’t care less.

    “A” for effort? ;-)

    [Reply]

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